At this morning's opening of the AMA MRC conference, Sheryl Connelly, with the Global Consumer Trends and Futuring for Ford Motor Company, discussed her role within Ford. Her job is to understand the world. She describes herself as the only person in the company who doesn't concentrate on cars: instead, she looks at demographics, consumer trends and scenario planning. Ford follows a process to provide a broad view and diverse opinions. Ford tracks over 200 trends in a trend database and then rolls that up into ten major tends. She then educates the rest of the company on those trends.
Ford's top trends:
- Aging population. The population is getting older, driven by: medical advances, active lifestyle, delayed marriage, delayed parenthood and declining fertility. What does the mean for Ford customers? Do you give up your car keys at 80 if you think you will live to be 102? This is significant in some markets (i.e., Japan) and not present in other markets (i.e., Russia).
- Changing physiology: Short and long term physical changes that accompany aging, affluence and urbanization. Important among these is the increase in obesity, especially childhood obesity: even infant obesity is up 70% in 20 years.
- Consumer is King. Consumers have unlimited choice and options, making them more savvy and more demanding, driven by: globalization, market fragmentation, on demand, online auctions and word of mouth.
- Rising Power of Women. Women's power growing around the globe as social, political and economic status rises. Key drivers: improved education, career opportunities, financial independence, and delayed marriage and parenthood. Women control 85% of household financial decisions.
- Ethical Consumption. Increasing concern over health, society and environment has consumers integrating ethical and religious beliefs into the purchase process. Key drivers: power of the Internet, rising trust in NGOs, butterfly effect (local scale, global impact), citizen groups and shifting accountability.
- Crisis of Confidence. Threats to financial security, health and personal safety has consumers feeling vulnerable. Examples of firms reacting to this: BofA's Keep the Change program has brought in 2M new customers (6M accounts); Hyundai will make your car payments for three months if you lose your job (and now Ford will as well).
- Careful Consumption. The consumer "balances practicality with passion" and exercises self-discipline, thoroughness and deliberation. Key drivers include the credit crunch and end of the era of excess.
- Safety & Security. Consumers seeking out reassurance of personal safety, security, health and wellness. Key drivers: new threats, mistrust in business and government, media, technological advances, demand for precision and perfection.
- Information Addiction. Consumers have become reliant on access to real-time information, giving them greater control, power and success. Key drivers: knowledge as status, infuentials, greater scrutiny, time poverty, just in time lifestyle.
- Information Overload. Too much information can be even more problematic than too little information. Key drivers: flogs and blogola, astroturfing (fake grassroots campaigns), Lonelygirl15, advertorials.
So what's next? No one can predict the future. "I want the organization to never be surprised in our brightest dreams or our darkest nightmares." Ford relies heavily on scenario planning to make sure that it is contemplating the actions required by these major trends.